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中國人口紅利悄然變化,如果三胎開放,中國會發生什么
2020-01-06 23:26   来源:  www.femme-cast.com   评论:0 点击:

中國人口紅利悄然變化,如果三胎開放,中國會發生什么作為全世界人口最多的國家,中國除了自身擁有不俗的發

作為全世界人口最多的國家,中國除了自身擁有不俗的發展潛力外,人口基數帶來的人口紅利也是中國近幾十年能夠經濟騰飛的原因。不過,自從計劃生育后,中國的人口結構出現了很大的改變,雖然控制住了人口的飛速增長,但控制人口的產生的弊端,僅僅過了兩代人的時間便暴露無遺。

As the most populous country in the world, in addition to its own development potential, the demographic dividend brought by the population base is also the reason why China's economy has taken off in recent decades. However, since family planning, the country's population structure has changed a lot, although the rapid growth of the population has been controlled, but the shortcomings of population control, only two generations later exposed.

最直接的問題就是人口老齡化問題和結婚率日漸下滑,自計劃生育后,中國的家庭組成大部分都成為了“421”模式,夫妻二人要養活自己的同時,還要照顧父母和孩子,壓力很大。以往還有兄弟姐妹一起贍養,但現在贍養的義務全部落到了一個人身上,導致壓力倍增。

The most immediate problem is the aging of the population and the declining marriage rate. Since family planning, most of china's family composition has become a \"421\" model. In the past there have been siblings together to support, but now the obligation to support all fell on a person, resulting in increased pressure.

國家看到了人口結構的改變后,從11年開放雙獨二胎,13年放寬成單獨二胎,再到15年全面放開二胎,可以說是想要減緩老齡化問題。但從近幾年新生兒數量看,除了剛開放二胎的16年有所增長外,17、18年均出現了下降,18甚至可以說是斷崖式下降,而據說19年的情況也不容樂觀。有專家預測,如果社會壓力不減小的話,不出3年,中國新生兒甚至可能突破1000萬大關。

After seeing the change of the population structure, the State opened two separate twins in 11, and it was relaxed into two separate ones in 13, and then released the second child completely in 15 years, which can be said to slow down the aging problem. However, according to the number of newborns in recent years, apart from the 16-year increase in the newly opened second child, there has been a decrease in 17-18 years, 18 can be said to be said to be a cliff decline, and the situation in 19 years is said to be not optimistic. Experts predict that if social pressure does not decrease, in less than three years, China's newborns may even break through 10 million.

那么有小伙伴可能會問了,那如果開放三胎四胎或者干脆完全放開,那么會不會減緩人口老齡化的趨勢呢?其實從二胎政策逐漸放寬的過程來看,基本上都沒能達到預期,所以按照當下的情況來看,即使開放了三胎四胎,可能大概率和二胎剛開放那樣,產生短時間的熱度,但可能沒幾年就回歸正常了。

So some partners may ask, if the opening of a three-child, four-child, or simply let go, will it slow the aging trend? In fact, from the gradual relaxation of the second-child policy process, basically did not meet expectations, so according to the current situation, even if the opening of three-child four-child, probably the big probability and the second-child just opened, produce a short period of heat, but may return to normal in a few years.

歸根結底,其實還是許多外在因素導致的。結婚成本高、房價過高、孩子的教育成本高等都成為了許多家庭生孩子路上的攔路虎,讓很多家庭想生卻又不敢生,十分的無奈。外在因素造成了國民的生育意愿低迷,結果就是18年的出生率創下48年來的最低記錄,僅為%。

In the final analysis, there are many external factors. High cost of marriage, high housing prices, high cost of education for children have become the road block for many families to have children, so that many families want to have but dare not have, very helpless. External factors have contributed to the nation's low fertility aspirations, resulting in an 18-year birth rate hitting a 48-year low of only%.

當然,開放二胎的話,從某種程度上也會改變家庭的購房需求,很大可能會從兩室換成三室甚至更多。正如上文提到的,住房的需求增加,房價自然會上漲,這也是房價高居不下的原因之一。但現如今,出生率全面下降的情況下,房屋的重要性可能會逐漸下降,所以未來幾年的房價,會因為生育率的下降,出現降溫也說不定。

Of course, the opening of a second child, to some extent, will also change the demand for home purchase, is likely to change from two rooms to three or more. As mentioned above, housing demand increases and house prices naturally rise, which is one of the reasons why house prices are too high. But now, with the birth rate falling all over the world, the importance of housing may gradually decline, so housing prices in the next few years will probably be cooled by the decline in fertility.


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