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水皮雜談降準迎來開門紅老船票能否登上新客船
2020-01-06 21:55   来源:  www.femme-cast.com   评论:0 点击:

水皮雜談降準迎來開門紅老船票能否登上新客船感知中國經濟的真實溫度,見證逐夢時代的前行腳步。誰能代表201

感知中國經濟的真實溫度,見證逐夢時代的前行腳步。誰能代表2019年度商業最強驅動力?2020年1月9日,2019十大經濟年度人物頒獎典禮將于北京751D·PARK盛大召開,敬請期待。【】

Feel the real temperature of the Chinese economy, witness the pace of the dream-driven era. who can represent the strongest driving force for business 2019? On January 9,2020, the 2019 Big Ten Economic Person of the Year Awards ceremony will be held in Beijing 751D MARK Grand, please look forward to it. 【】

  2020年的第一次降準比預期的要早一些。此前大家根據經驗判斷,春節前的可能性要大一些,但是誰也沒想到大過節的央行就突然宣布了,多多少少有些情理之中預料之外的感覺。

The first drop in 2020 was earlier than expected. Previously, according to the experience, before the spring festival is more likely, but no one thought that the central bank suddenly announced the festival, more or less some reasonable unexpected feeling.

  因為降準不是什么秘密,總理李克強已經在不同場合作過類似的表態,市場其實預期圣誕前后就有舉動,但是沒有想到央行按兵不動,不按常理出牌,不過考慮到2019年1月4日李克強走訪銀行召集座談會并且宣布降準的過往,這種安排均是正常的,沒必要想太多。如果一定要作個對比,我們可以發現,2019年兩次宣布時間和實施時間不一樣:第一次生效時差是20天,第二次生效時差是10天。而這一次生效時差是5天,一次比一次短,似乎也在說明,一次比一次更加緊迫。

Because the cut is no secret, prime minister li keqiang has co-operated in a similar position in different venues, the market actually expected to move around christmas, but did not expect the central bank to move, not according to the common sense, but considering that mr li visited the bank on january 4,2019 to convene a forum and announced the past of the cut, this arrangement is normal, need not think too much. If a comparison must be made, we can find that the time of the two announcements in 2019 is different from the time of implementation: the first effective time difference is 20 days, and the second effective time difference is 10 days. And this time the time difference is five days, one time is shorter, it also seems to explain, one time is more urgent.

  這一次全面降準釋放的流動性在8000億左右,按照央行的說法體現了逆周期調節,增加了金融機構支持實體經濟的穩定的資金來源,有利于實現貨幣信貸、社會融資規模增長同經濟發展相適應,為高質量發展和供給側結構性改革營造適宜的貨幣金融環境,并且用市場化改革辦法疏通貨幣政策傳導,有利于降低銀行資金成本150億,中小銀行可獲1500億規模投向小微民營企業,當然也有利于春節前現金投放形成對沖,保持流動性總體穩定靈活適度,并非大水漫灌。央行的解釋是中規中矩的,中國的銀行存款準備金率在全球都偏高,目前依然有13%,而中性相對應的應該在12%上下,所以,如果年內再次降準也是合理的、正常的。

This total reduction in liquidity is around 800 billion, according to the central bank, reflecting the counter-cyclical adjustment, increasing the stable source of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, helping to achieve monetary credit, social financing scale growth in line with economic development, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform, and using market-oriented reform to dredge monetary policy transmission, which is conducive to reducing the cost of bank funds 15 billion, small and medium-sized banks can get 150 billion to invest in small private enterprises, of course, also conducive to the pre-Spring festival cash investment to form hedging, maintain overall stability and flexibility, not large flooding. The central bank's explanation is modest, with china's bank reserve ratio on a global high, still 13%, and its neutral equivalent at around 12%, so it would be reasonable and normal if the year were to fall again.

  降準首當其沖的反應來自股市,正是降準這一利好,讓A股迎來了開門紅。當天上證上漲%,深成指上漲%,創業板上漲了%,上證是創下半年來的新高,而深圳指數均創下2019年以來的新高,坐實了相當一部分投資者對春季躁動行情的期望。而事實上正是2019年初的降準引爆了當年的反彈行情,降準第二天,上證大漲%,深圳漲%,之后,上證從2440點一路狂飆到3288點,盤中漲幅超過%,4月以后上證逐級回落,8月探底2733


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